A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
